On fudged forecasts and cookies...

Yes, it did snow today. And, yes, Watauga County school children enjoyed another snow day. But my children are chapped because sledding party plans did not pan out because it snowed for only an hour.
Fortunately for me, my daughters don't blame me for this missed forecast. Instead, the Mr. Local Weather Guy, who claims he rarely misses a forecast, is the big loser. My eldest daughter, a student in AP Stats this year, offers a bit of advise for Mr. Local Weather Guy:
"Weather forecasting is a matter of probabilities. He should offer percentage chances of weather with a large margin of error. That way, when he does completely screw up like he did today, he can point to his numbers and still claim accuracy within the perameters he gave earlier," she said.
Mmm...I think my daughter might have a fantastic future as a bookie.
And taking a completely different tangent, my youngest just learned that adding extra baking soda to oatmeal raisin cookies is not necessarily a good idea.